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PGA Championship roundtable: Odds, tips and storylines

The PGA Championship is upon us, and which means we’re again to kick across the prospects of the sport’s finest and brightest. Yahoo Sports senior author Jay Busbee and lead fantasy analyst Scott Pianowski are right here to provide the insights you want heading into the 12 months’s second main … in addition to some tips for wagering a couple of, uh, jelly beans.

BUSBEE: Scott, my pal, right here we’re, again within the PGA Championship groove once more. Still feels bizarre to have this match in May; it is often on the tail finish of summer season and kickoff is simply days away. Not so this 12 months! Let’s dig in, beginning with the match itself. The PGA will get grief for being the fourth-of-four majors — not the old-world the Aristocracy of The Open, not the brute power of the U.S. Open, not the wealthy custom of the Masters. But I find it irresistible anyway. What’s your tackle the PGA as a serious?

PIANOWSKI: The PGA Championship has worn lots of hats and tried lots of advertising and marketing hooks. It was a match play occasion till the late Fifties. It’s been pushed everywhere in the calendar. In our lifetimes, the advertising and marketing angle was “Glory’s Last Shot”, golf’s manner of shrugging and admitting, hey, it will by no means be as prestigious as the opposite three majors, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a freaking main, it is nonetheless one in every of 4. Ringo Starr continues to be a Beatle, proper?

It’s going to take some time for the May touchdown spot to really feel pure, nevertheless it was a vital transfer. Once the FedExCup and the Olympics grew to become a part of the golf calendar, the late-summer schedule grew to become too congested. We simply want a while for the cadence to sink in. And when my reminiscence thinks again to earlier PGA Championships, I bear in mind a bunch of sweltering August occasions received by extraordinary gamers and journeymen. I think we’ll see extra star energy on the PGA going ahead, and that is a superb factor.

Which is to not say we’ve got to disregard the center of the marketplace for our picks and jelly-bean investments. Kiawah Island is a Pete Dye creation, and once I consider his programs, I consider a large swath of the sphere having a shot. Plenty of non-power gamers have been aggressive again in 2012, though Rory McIlroy left everybody within the mud. And who does not love a golf course on the water? Time to get excited.

BUSBEE: Kiawah Island has the potential to provide us a really nice match this weekend. I like each side of it — the wind that may come from any course, the greens which can be elevated to forestall links-style bump-and-runs, the scrub and tough that penalizes massive hitters with suspect accuracy. The final time the match was at Kiawah, just one man completed at higher than 5-under; that is U.S. Open-level energy. 

Now, it is time to dig in. Bust open that massive jar of jellybeans and let’s throw ’em down. 

PIANOWSKI: We want jellybeans in play. Let’s begin with who I can’t guess on.

I can’t guess on DJ, he’s not in kind. Brooks Koepka hasn’t absolutely hit stride but, both. I can’t guess on Bryson DeChambeau, as a result of I don’t like rooting for gorilla golf. And I’m not thrilled with how he reacts when he hits some turbulence. It’s a superb factor to demand and count on greatness, however you want one thing else whenever you’re punched within the mouth.

I can’t think about anybody not in love with Viktor Hovland’s recreation, however I used to be shocked to see him listed because the seventh favourite. I don’t see sufficient resume to justify that worth, not but.

BUSBEE: I’m kinda massive on Hovland, to be sincere. A stable run of robust finishes these days, plus the truth that the PGA is so beneficiant to first-timers — six prior to now decade alone — units him up properly. I’m additionally massive on Daniel Berger, a man who’s received twice because the return from the pandemic shutdown and who ranks within the prime 25 in most of these stat-nerd classes which can be key to cashing massive.

I do know I’m being heretical right here, however I’m not fairly as excessive on McIlroy as I’m being instructed I should be. He received a match, sure, however he was one unhealthy choice away from giving it away on the final second. He’s received at Kiawah Island, sure, however that was 9 years in the past in August. 

So dig deeper. Everyone’s going to be taking a look at Rory and Spieth. Who else decrease down the board intrigues you? With all lines courtesy of BetMGM, after all. 

PIANOWSKI: Longer pictures who can win: Cameron Smith has the cojones you want on any such stage. He’s not afraid to play aggressively and cope with the nervy par savers you’ll must make. My first 5 bucks go on Smith outright, 40-1. Abraham Ancer is a ball-striking machine, the kind of man who may hit 15 greens on a Sunday. Just must get snug on the greens early. His match-play expertise has hardened his resolve; he’s additionally not afraid of the second. Five bucks at 50-1.

Corey Conners has the kind of dependable tee recreation that I need in a serious. He’s been on the periphery of contending at some massive boy programs. He in all probability received’t win however I’m getting some overlay at 66-1. Another fiver. And let’s throw $5 on Will Zalatoris, who’s too younger to comprehend simply how exhausting golf is. If Augusta didn’t make him throw up, this second received’t, both.

So that’s 20 % of my funds. The remainder of it goes on Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele.

Thomas has essentially the most gears of any present participant, even DJ. He’s essentially the most constant. He has the ability, the finesse, and the arrogance to tinker mid-round and discover one thing that’s working. Give me $10 on Thomas to win, Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20.

I’ll make the identical bets on Schauffele. I’m a famous sympathizer for the empaths. Look in any respect the yellow on Xander’s main web page — he’s already booked eight top-10s in majors, together with six top-5 finishes. He’s far too younger to be labeled an underachiever or have scar tissue but; these experiences truly assist him. This wall comes tumbling down finally.

I want Seve was nonetheless round to see this. He was the very best participant within the 1991 Ryder Cup, when this course got here into our lives. I feel this week’s winner will want the identical derring-do, the identical creativity, the identical creativeness. That will be Thomas. That will be Xander.

You want only one choose? Keep betting JT till I let you know to cease.

BUSBEE: You’re going all in on these two, huh? I prefer it. 

Zalatoris and Smith took excellent care of me on the Masters, so I’ll throw 5 on every of them for a prime 10 (+350 and +400, respectively). I like the best way that Hovland is enjoying and reigning champ Collin Morikawa is ready up, so one other 5 on every of them for a prime 5 end, at +200 and +275 respectively. 

Now, let’s go larger. I’ll put 20 apiece to win on Berger (+2800), Spieth (+1400) and DJ (+1600), who might thrive in his house state. That leaves me with 20, so let’s get particular. Another 5 on every of those props: the profitable margin being two strokes (+400), the profitable rating being 278 or greater (+110), Berger and Morikawa to complete within the prime 10 (+3000), and — why not — a wire-to-wire winner (+1200). Good luck! 

The PGA Championship begins Thursday and runs all weekend lengthy. Enjoy the match!

Can Collin Morikawa repeat as PGA champion? (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

Can Collin Morikawa repeat as PGA champion? (Tom Pennington/Getty Images)


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